Only lip service to reality

Niall Ferguson, one of many enamored with the idea of American imperial might, starts to come to grips with the limits of that power:

With the U.S. rate of GDP growth set to contract between 2 and 3 percentage points this year, and with the official unemployment rate likely to approach 10 percent, all attention in Washington will remain focused on a nearly $1 trillion stimulus package. Caution has been thrown to the wind by both the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. The projected deficit for 2009 is already soaring above the trillion-dollar mark, more than 8 percent of GDP. Few commentators are asking what all this means for U.S. foreign policy.

The answer is obvious: The resources available for policing the world are certain to be reduced for the foreseeable future. That will be especially true if foreign investors start demanding higher yields on the bonds they buy from the United States or simply begin dumping dollars in exchange for other currencies.

Economic volatility, plus ethnic disintegration, plus an empire in decline: That combination is about the most lethal in geopolitics. We now have all three. The age of upheaval starts now.

Of course, none of this seems to be giving pause to those planning on doubling down in Afghanistan. And I still haven't heard a coherent proposal for an exit strategy there. But as other internet writers have pointed out, a troop surge might be just the thing to address that projected 10% unemployment rate...

Welfare and warfare--the State's favorite (and just about only) agendas. Are we sure we want to keep handing it more power?