Statistics and stomachs

A good example of the uselessness of government statistics:

Consumer prices slowed in April despite the biggest jump in food costs in nearly two decades. But with oil near record levels, Americans should brace for more pain at the pump in coming months.

The Labor Department reported Wednesday that consumer prices edged up 0.2 percent last month, slightly lower than expected and better than the 0.3 percent rise in March.

The lower inflation reflected a flat reading for energy ((!!)), which helped offset a 0.9 percent jump in food. That was the biggest one-month surge since a 1.5 percent increase in January 1990.

For April, energy prices were unchanged and gasoline prices even fell by 2 percent, a decline that would strike motorists as strange, given that they have been watching the price of gasoline rise relentlessly in recent weeks.

However, since gasoline prices normally rise in April, the 5.6 percent increase in gasoline prices for the month was turned into a 2 percent drop after the government adjusted for normal seasonal variations -- little comfort to people now paying pump prices that hit a new national record of $3.758 per gallon on Thursday, up nearly 40 cents in the past month.

Listen closely when such statistics are reported, with their "seasonal adjustments," "weighted baskets," and the like. Most such numbers are run through enough filters to make them meaningless--just like the gasoline stats above. As Twain said, there are "lies, damned lies, and statistics."

So who are you going to believe, government or your gas tank?